Logos kai Apokalupsis

Going back to my days as a youngin’ is HoneyMoon Suite, which me and the wife heard on Sirius tonight and it brought back memories:

As noted in the WSJ here, the fertility rate is falling among a certain group, which will lead to a changing America:

Forget the debt ceiling. Forget the fiscal cliff, the sequestration cliff and the entitlement cliff. Those are all just symptoms. What America really faces is a demographic cliff: The root cause of most of our problems is our declining fertility rate.

The fertility rate is the number of children an average woman bears over the course of her life. The replacement rate is 2.1. If the average woman has more children than that, population grows. Fewer, and it contracts. Today, America’s total fertility rate is 1.93, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; it hasn’t been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970s.

The nation’s falling fertility rate underlies many of our most difficult problems. Once a country’s fertility rate falls consistently below replacement, its age profile begins to shift. You get more old people than young people. And eventually, as the bloated cohort of old people dies off, population begins to contract. This dual problem—a population that is disproportionately old and shrinking overall—has enormous economic, political and cultural consequences.

 

Is this the Future of Higher Ed? There is still a lot of resistance to online education at colleges and universities, but the modern demand for education in a non central setting is gaining more and more traction. Those colleges that do not embrace this trend will lose market share, and possibly have to shut their doors. Snip:

David Lando plans to start working toward a diploma from the University of Wisconsin this fall, but he doesn’t intend to set foot on campus or even take a single online course offered by the school’s well-regarded faculty.

David Lando plans to join a Wisconsin program that could award him a bachelor’s degree after he takes online tests to establish his knowledge.

Instead, he will sit through hours of testing at his home computer in Milwaukee under a new program that promises to award a bachelor’s degree based on knowledge—not just class time or credits.

“I have all kinds of credits all over God’s green earth, but I’m using this to finish it all off,” said the 41-year-old computer consultant, who has an associate degree in information technology but never finished his bachelor’s in psychology.

Colleges and universities are rushing to offer free online classes known as “massive open online courses,” or MOOCs. But so far, no one has figured out a way to stitch these classes together into a bachelor’s degree.

Now, educators in Wisconsin are offering a possible solution by decoupling the learning part of education from student assessment and degree-granting.

Wisconsin officials tout the UW Flexible Option as the first to offer multiple, competency-based bachelor’s degrees from a public university system. Officials encourage students to complete their education independently through online courses, which have grown in popularity through efforts by companies such as Coursera, edX and Udacity.

my #1 for the year came near the middle of the year, by the band called DIIV, and “Doused.”

It is 2:54, do you know where you are….you might know “You’re Early.” At #2:
 

I have always liked M83. In march they released this, “Reunion, and so @ #3:

Not far behind Royal Bangs, was always A Place to Bury Strangers, and “Onwards to the Wall.” My #4 pick for the year 2012:

In 2012 I would make several trip to Chicago, and in nearly all those trips, Royal Bangs loomed large. At #5, “My Car is Haunted.”

In the #6 spot Wild Belle, “Keep You.”

In the #7 spot I like the March release by Pond, “Elegant Design.”

In the #8 spot, Tanlines! “All of Me.”

In the number 9 spot of 2012, Santigold, “Disparate Youth.” And yes, there is much rejoicing.

As per tradition, my students introduced me to Indie music when I taught in Virginia.  I have followed it as most students–especially those in the more cosmopolitan cities like Chicago–are very in tune with the Indie scene.  Without adieu, number 10 is Frankie Rose, “Know Me”:

It is getting very difficult for Romney to even have a hope to win this.

And Republicans cannot and will not now retake the Senate.  It is mathematically impossible.

and I am sad.  It seems so long ago he ran this cutting edge campaign….

here in Chicago, and it is warm inside….and Romney is not doing enough to win this.  Scott Brown from Mass is in trouble.

Why is Romney having so much trouble?  Because the base of the Republican Party is not excited to vote for him.

In Virginia, Romney is putting up a great fight.  In Florida, Obama is suffering a bit….but this night is early.  Romney is ahead now, but will lose this unless people changed their mind in the booth.

Stay tuned.

A friend of mine at Newsweek posted the Beast Board.  It’s over….Obama is going to win.

So I predicted to a certain University President that Obama would win the election despite (at the time) the trends to Romney.

President Obama

Rasmussen has the race in a statistical tie. The race will likely hinge on these battlegrounds:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin.

Real Clear Politics is the place to find the latest polls.  Judging from them, the race is too close to call.  But in all the polls, Obama has always had a slight lead.  Romney really has not broke out over the top.

Obama looks pretty reliably up in Ohio, and for me that spells game over for Romney. We could have the oddity of Romney getting the popular but losing the electoral.  Most polls, including the one listed at Politico have a virtual tie.  With no one getting really above the 50% threshold, this could be a long night.  Unless people break hard one way or another, it could be close indeed.

Regardless, my prediction is Obama pulls this out and will be re-elected.

So this is where I voted today:  at the Romeoville Village Hall.  It was light, but poll workers say turnout is higher than the primary.

Have you voted today?  How was the turnout?

I made a prediction weeks ago of how this election would turn out, that will come in the next post.

To all students in Pols 201, 202, and 415.  I will be blogging the election tomorrow. Look for posts here about the election.

Michael Barone notes the strengths and weaknesses of the Republican party base.  Interesting in the article is the changing base of the party over the last few decades.  Snip:

Yet Republicans assembling sooner or later in storm-tossed Tampa should keep in mind that in 2008, as in 1944, their party was in the minority and that they need to add votes from other groups to win. White noncollege voters and white evangelical Christians were only 42% and 37%, respectively, of the winning Republican coalition in the 2010 congressional elections.

Recent polling suggests that affluent suburbanite Mitt Romney is making gains among groups where the party has been losing votes, and if he is elected he will need to govern in a way that holds this larger party together. But that is the challenge the Republican Party has always faced, and over its 158 years it has won more presidential elections than it has lost.

Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik hve written a thoughtful piece on the 2012 election.  Snip:

By contrast, the Republican Convention in Tampa, Fla., Aug. 27-Aug. 30, is vital. Mr. Romney today is slightly underperforming John McCain four years ago. Sen. McCain received 45.6% of the national vote and 45.4% in seven key swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia)—whereas Mr. Romney is scoring just 44% nationally and 44.5% in the swing states, according to Thursday’s RealClearPolitics average of polls. There are Republican-leaning voters who still must be brought into the fold, and a solid convention that defines Mr. Romney positively in personal and policy terms could give him a modest but durable bounce.

Economics may drive the election somewhat, but international developments also may determine the election as well.

Harvard professor Harvey Mansfield has done us a great service by writing an excellent piece on modernity.  Key snip:

He is aware that the humanist philosophers in Poggio’s time had reason not to risk gaining a reputation for atheism, and he recounts at some length the later (1600) trial and burning of Giordano Bruno for his open heresy. But this motive would be the same in the time of Lucretius, or in any time. Almost every society punishes atheism, even to some extent our tolerant society today: Try running for president as an atheist. Every society rests on belief, almost always on a religious belief that God supports and protects it. At the same time, a philosopher is one who questions the authority of belief, especially the highest. Philosophy always tends toward skepticism, and even if it finds in favor of religion, it does so on philosophical grounds. Skepticism is normal for philosophers, and so too is dissimulation to conceal skepticism and confuse the authorities. A recent book on Lucretius and the Renaissance by the historian Alison Brown shows greater understanding of the once-common practice of evasion by philosophers, and remarks on Lucretius’ “discreet (and often unnamed) influence” in that time. The appreciation and the discretion had the same cause: Both were offensive to prevailing belief.

Indie saves Rock-n-roll and resurrects the 60s:

Watch the full video at Baeblemusic.com

CNN notes Romney is pulling away.  Some of this is expected because Republicans always seem to reward the last real challenger.  But name recognition may have something to do with it too.  As the WSJ notes, Romney is not fairing well against Obama in a head-to-head matchup.  Though Obama is only at 49%, it is not a strong showing for Romney to be that far behind.